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2010 Predictions: TouchGen on iPhone games next year

We continue our series of 2010 predictions. Today we hear from Matt Dunn of TouchGen.

2009 was an exciting year for iPhone and iPod Touch owners. I remember attending a an iPhone gaming summit early in the year and thinking to myself "Wow... I think they’re really on to something here!" Promptly after this, a lone developer by the name of Igor Pusenjak approached me with a little game that he and his brother had been working on. He had flown all the way to San Francisco from New York, and was on the verge of giving up production due to lack of activity on the App Store.

This little game was called Doodle Jump, and I played it non-stop for the rest of the conference before posting about it on iPhoneGamesNetwork.com (now TouchGen.com), which helped launch it to it's current success. As most of you probably already know, Doodle Jump has topped the charts for months now. I have learned that anything can happen when it comes to the App Store and Apple’s "iDevices." Many developers will rise and fall in 2010, just as they have in 2009.

Here are 5 "informed" predictions to look forward to in the new year.

1. App Store games will start selling for more than $10
If you want console quality games, you will need to pay console quality prices. Period. With the new "top grossing" list on the App Store, it’s easy to see that people are willing to pay more money for quality products. Publishers have seen this.

I'm tired of people complaining about App Store games being "too short" when they only paid $5 for the experience. That's the cost of a mocha a Starbucks! It’s not even half the price of 90 minutes of entertainment at a movie theater. The price "sweet spot" is slowly rising for premium App Store games, and I think it will continue to rise in 2010. I hope so, because I'm also growing tired of seeing mobile versions of full console games, with one tenth the content and features... which leads to my next prediction...

2. More console quality, fully-featured games
With the higher asking price comes higher quality games. I expect that once App Store games break into the $15-$20 mark, we'll start seeing some larger downloads, and more games that are 3GS (or at least 3G and up) exclusive. Already games like C&C: Red Alert painfully chug on the 3G yet perform much better on the 3GS. There are also games that are designed to look prettier on the 3GS. Developers have taken the first step already.

I think that a prime target will be Xbox Live Arcade games, or possibly some of the lesser played Playstation Network games. We've already seen damn fine ports of Bejeweled 2 Deluxe and Peggle. Companies like PopCap have made an incredible living off making fun, addictive, and polished casual games that work well on these devices. Do I hope we see more epic games like those on our console friends? Sure. Will most of them fail? Yes.

3. Abuse of in-app purchases
When I say "abuse", I do so from a whiney consumer standpoint. If there's one thing consumers don't like, it's paying more. If there's one thing developers love, it's squeezing every dime out of their hard work. Why? Because late night runs for Mountain Dew and salty snacks during 20-hour coding sessions adds up! It's also been statistically proven that games with frequent content updates, like Pocket God, get played much more often than games that stay the same from the day you purchase it. So why not charge for said content updates?

We're already seeing in-app purchases being used in games like Eliminate and Red Alert, but I have a feeling we're going to start seeing this a LOT more in the months to come. This has the possibility of turning off consumers, with apps being "free" to download, but then costing money to continue playing/expand the game. It remains to be seen if this a good business model to follow. Generally, App Store consumers tend to be quite the impulse buyers, (see iHunt and Mood Touch in #5) so I imagine it will pay off quite well - especially considering the ridiculous number of people that download free versions of games.

Personally, I think the ability to download a game, play through a limited part of the game, and then pay to "unlock" the rest is a great idea. It’s something that has worked very well for the Xbox Live Arcade, which was the first real "app store" for consoles. (Not including services like Steam for PC gaming.) This will remove all the clutter of having two different version of every single game on the App Store, and will ensure that only truly "free" games, not demoes, will be contained in the top free games list.

4. We will see at least one true MMORPG on an iDevice. Worldwide productivity will decrease by 60%.
Games like Everquest and the ever-present World of Warcraft have taken over social gaming as we know it. Imagine taking one of these highly addictive and profitable games and smashing it into a device that gives you online access anywhere. It... would... be... AWESOME.

I already know of some such games that are currently in development for Apple's platform, and I'm pretty sure at least one of them will emerge in 2010. Whether it's one I've heard of or some crazy announcement from Blizzard, someone will release something, and it will make them a ton of money. Let's hope they do it right. Looking at you, Bioware. How about a real Mass Effect mobile game next time?

5. More bad games will be made, and possibly become popular
I suppose this isn't really a shocking prediction. People who say that the App Store is a "dumping ground" could not be more right. Everyone is trying to get a piece of the pie, even if they use an unpolished and poorly tested serving knife to do so. I'm hoping that crappy games will slowly dwindle, but this will only happen if people on the App Store stop buying them. Games like iHunt or Mood Touch should never have become as popular as they did. Sadly, like a bad car accident, everyone just had to have a look. I'm proud to say I've never touched either. Would have taken days to get the smell off my fingers.

In closing...
Will 2010 bring a new iPhone? Probably. Will the iPhone receive the fabled "iController" so that we actually get buttons? Maybe. One thing we do know, is that the iPhone and iPod Touch will continue to be a smudge magnet for bored gamer fingers everywhere. More and more and more bored, greasy, Cheeto-encrusted, gamer fingers.

Special thank you to Matt for taking the time to share his predictions.

Read what Andrew Podolsky of Slide to Play envisions for 2010, and be sure to come back throughout the week to see what Tracy Erickson, Pocket Gamer, Jeff Scott, 148Apps, and others foresee in 2010.

What do you think will happen in 2010? Send us your thoughts. We'll compile the most interesting predictions into a final post.

Note: The opinions expressed by the interviewee in the entry above may not represent the opinions of Glu, its Board of Directors or officers.

Categories: Industry, iPhone